Adverse Hot–Humid Conditions and Educational Outcomes in India: Impact Measurement and Mitigation Pathways

Sumit Agarwal
National University of Singapore

Pulak Ghosh
Indian Institute of Management Bangalore

Francesco Scarazzato
Vienna University of Economics and Business

Sofie R. Waltl
University of Cambridge & Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract

Does extreme heat adversely affect educational outcomes in India? We link results from the Indian Upper Primary Level Examination to local weather, air pollution, and vegetation data derived from remote sensing. Our four-year panel tracks student performance within the same schools while accounting for time-invariant characteristics. Both cumulative heat during the school year and higher temperatures during exams significantly reduce performance. Even under the most optimistic RCP scenario, a constant temperature increase would, ceteris paribus, lower pass rates by 3%, implying substantial human capital losses. Effect sizes peak when maximum temperatures exceed 40°C and are similar for general measures of thermal comfort combining heat and humidity. Students in poorer areas, especially the urban poor, are most vulnerable, and newer or non-centrally managed schools may require retrofitting. Vegetation near schools mitigates heat impacts but not sufficiently to offset future risks.

JEL.: Q54, I24, I25
Keywords: Education, Climate Change, Heat Stress, Inequality, India

Dissemination

Presentations: [WU Department of Economics PhD seminar][2023 NOeG conference, Paris Lodron University of Salzburg][Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz][Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resources Governance (CEENRG), University of Cambridge][63rd ERSA Congress, Terceira Island, Portugal][19th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi][Centre of South Asian Studies, University of Cambridge][Asian Economic Development Conference (AEDC), Peking University][School of Spatial Planning & Design, Hangzhou City University][2025 World Congress of the Econometric Society (ESWC 2025), Seoul][Murray Edwards College, Universität University of Cambridge][9th South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) Conference, Dhaka]