Philipp Poyntner
Paris Lodron University Salzburg
Sofie R. Waltl
University of Cambridge
Abstract
We study how the public perceive the link between interest rates and house prices, and whether expert information revises those beliefs. Using a large cross-country survey in Austria, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, we find that a large majority of respondents perceive a connection between mortgage rates and house prices, and that a substantial share sees the theoretically predicted negative relationship. Beliefs respond to real expert statements: respondents revise initially incorrect answers, with patterns that differ across the two messages we field (a central-bank statement and an academic statement). We also measure knowledge of monetary-policy instruments and document socio-economic and experience-related correlates. The gender gap in measured literacy is driven primarily by women’s greater reluctance to answer under uncertainty rather than by a deficit in underlying knowledge. Literacy in conventional monetary policy also varies markedly across countries, with Austria and Sweden well ahead of Germany and Italy, possibly reflecting differences in mortgage market structure.
JEL Codes: E52, E58, R31, D83, D84, G53, J16.
Keywords: Monetary Policy Literacy, Monetary Policy Communication, Expert Credibility, Gender Gap, Housing Markets, Survey-Experiment
This research benefits from funding by the the Jubiläumsstiftung der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, Grant No. 27001764 (H-WELL), INEQ and FNR Luxembourg National Research Fund, CORE Grant No. 3886 (ASSESS).
Dissemination
Presentations (incl. scheduled): [1st Workshop on Residential Housing Markets: Perceptions and Measurement, Luxembourg][3rd Workshop on Residential Housing Markets: A Market in Distress and Potential Solutions, WU Vienna][38th IARIW General Conference, King‘s College in London][SCEUS Young Scholars Workshop, Salzburg][5th International Workshop on Rent Control, Tarragona][1st Housing Policy Symposium, WU Vienna][CERF Monday Lunchtime Talks, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge][Research Seminar Financial Markets and the Global Challenges, University of Hanover][AREUEA International Conference, Medellín, Colombia]
Sofie R Waltl 